The result, by the way, is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state. Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder, a stranger, certainly an organ whose powers need to be limited or defined and constrained, the Chinese don’t see the state like that at all. The Chinese view the state as an intimate—not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family; not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch of the family. This the Chinese view of the state, very very different to us. It’s embedded in society in a different kind of way to what the case in the West.
顺便提一下，结果是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者，一个陌生人，当然是一个组织它的权力需要被限制或被界定和约束，中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。中国人视国家作为一个亲密的朋友，也不止是作为一个密友，作为家庭里的一员，事实上也不止是家里一员，而是一家之长，家庭里的家长。这是从中国视角来看待国家, 和我们的截然不同。根植于中国社会的案例与我们在西方的社会例证是完全不同的。
And I would suggest you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the Chinese context, is a new kind of paradigm, which is different from anything we’ve had to think about in the past. You know that China believes in the state and market, I mean, Adam Smith already writing in the late 18th century, said, “the Chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated than anything in Europe.” And, apart from the Mao period, that remained more-or-less the case ever since. But this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitousstate. The state is everywhere in China. I mean, its leading firms, many of them are still publicly owned. Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on the state patronage. Targets for the economy and so on are set by the state. And the state, of course, its authority flows into lot of other areas as we are familiar with, with something like the one-child policy.
我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解在中国背景下，这是一种新的范例，它与我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。要知道中国人相信市场和国有。我指，亚当·斯密在18世纪晚期已经著书，说过，“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场，它都是较大的，较为发达的也是较为复杂的。”除了毛泽东时代，中国市场大体是如上的例证。但这也是在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。国家就是中国的一切。我指，它引领着公司，他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。私有企业，不管它们有多大，像Lenovo联想，在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。国家设置了经济目标等等。当然，国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面比如我们所述熟悉的独生子女政策。
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition, a very old tradition of statecraft. I mean, if you want an illustration of this, the Great Wall is one. But this is another, this is the Grand Canal, which was constructed in the first instance in the 5th century B.C. and was finally completed in the 7th century A.D. It went for 1114 miles, linking Beijing with Hangzhou and Shanghai. So there’s a long history of extraordinary state infrastructure projects in China, which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today, which is something like the Three Gorges Dam and many other expressions of state competence within China.So there we have 3 building blocks for trying to understand the difference that is China—the civilization state, the notion of race and the nature of the state and its relationship to society.
此外，中国是一个非常古老的传统国家，有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。如果你想搞明白这样的例子，长城就是其中一个。但这有另一个，这是(京杭)大运河，它起初是在公元前5世纪被建造的在公元7世纪时它最终竣工。它有1114英里，链接北京到杭州和上海。在中国，非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史由来已久，我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的，例如三峡大坝工程和许多中国其它的国家工程业绩。所以这3个组成部分让我们了解中国的不同-- 文明国家，民族的概念和国家的属性以及它和社会的关系。
And yet we still insist, by-and-large, in thinking that we can understand China by simply drawing on Western experience, looking at it through Western eyes, using Western concepts. If you want to know why we unerringlyto get China wrong, our predictions about what’s going to happen to China are incorrect, this is the reason. Unfortunately I think, I have to say that I think attitude towards China is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality. There’s kind of arrogant. It’s arrogant in the sense that we think that we are best, and therefore we have the universal measure.
总地说来，我们还一直坚持认为我们仅从西方经验的视角就能理解中国通过西方人视角使用西方理念来看透中国。如果你想知道我们为什么对中国有错误的认识我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的这上所述就是原因。不幸的是我认为，我得说我认为对中国的态度是西方人的一种心态做崇。这是傲慢的心态。就傲慢的心态而言我们认为我们是最好的，因此我们有普世的评判标准。
And secondly, it’s ignorant. We refuse to really address the issue of difference. You know, there’s a very interesting passage in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian. And Paul Cohen argues that the West thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. But it’s not. In many ways, it’s the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that it’s not really needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations. Because at the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way. Whereas those cultures, virtually the rest of the world in fact, which have been in a far weaker position, vis--vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because the West’s presence in those societies. And, they are, as a result, more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
其次，这是无知的。我们拒绝真正承认问题的不同面。大家知道，美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里(《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》)有一段非常有意思的话。保罗·柯文讲到西方认为它自身文化好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的文化。但事实不是。在许多方面，它是最狭隘的，因为200年来，西方一直主宰世界它不必去了解其他文化，其他文明。因为，到头来，必要时可动武，彰显其自身文化。反之这些其它文化几乎在世界其它地区的，事实上，面对西方文化，它们一直处于相对较弱的地位，从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化，因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。所以,结果是它们在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
I mean take the question of East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. a third of the world’s population lives there, now the largest economic region in the world. And I’ll tell you now, that East Asianers, people from East Asia, are far more knowledgeable about the West than the West is about East Asian.Now this point is very germane, I’m afraid, to the present. Because what’s happening? Back to that chart at the beginning the Goldman Sachs chart. What is happening is that, very rapidly in historical terms, the world is being driven and shaped, not by the old developed countries, but by the developing world. I mean we’ve seen this in terms of the G20 usurping very rapidly the position of the G7 or the G8. And there are 2 consequences of this, first, the West is rapidly losing its influence in the world. There was a dramatic illustration of this actually, a year ago, Copenhagen, climate change conference, Europe was not at the final negotiating table. When did that last happen? I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago, and that is what is going to happen in the future.
我们来谈谈东亚的问题。东亚：日本，韩国，中国等等-- 世界上三分之一人口住在那边，现在是全球最大的经济区域。现在我会告诉你，东亚人，东亚的人们，对西方的认识程度比起西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常有影响的。因为发生的变化吗?回到开始的图表-- 高盛投资公司的图表。当前发生的是，在历史上非常迅速，世界不是被老旧的发达国家所驱动和塑造，而是被发展中新兴国家。我们看到这个G20二十国集团它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团或者G8八国集团的地位。同时这有两个结果。第一，西方正快速地失去它在全球的影响。一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点哥本哈根，气候变化会议. 欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候?我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。在未来这还会发生。
And the second implication is that the world will inevitably as a consequence, become increasingly unfamiliar to us, because it’ll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories that we are not really familiar with or conversant with. And at last, I’m afraid, take Europe, America is slightly different, but Europeans by and large I have to say are ignorant, are unaware about the way the world is changing. Some people, I’ve got an English friend in China, he said “the continent is sleepwalking into oblivion.” Well maybe that’s true, maybe that’s an exaggeration. But there’s another problem which goes along with this that Europe is increasing out of touch with the world and that is a sort of a loss of a sense of the future. I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future in its confidence. Take the 19th century for example, but this, alas, is no longer true.
第二个含义是世界将不可避免地急剧变化，对我们来说很陌生，因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化，经验和历史所重塑。最后，我恐怕，拿欧洲来说，美国是有点不同的，但大体上，我得说欧洲人是无知的，他们没有意识到世界上正在发生的改变。有人，我有一个在中国的英国朋友，他说，“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”好吧，恐怕是对的，恐怕这有点夸张。但另一问题随之产生欧洲正在日益与世界脱节这是一种对未来感的缺失。当然，我指欧洲曾自信地引领未来。拿19世纪来举例。唉，但这已经风光不在。
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future, try China—there’s old Confucius. This is a railway station the like of which you’ve never seen before. It doesn’t even look like a railway station. This is the new Guangzhou railway station for the high-speed trains. China already has more of the bigger network than any other country in the world and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together. Or take this: now this is an idea, but it’s an idea to be tried out shortly in a suburb of Beijing. Here you have a megbus, on the upper deck carries about 2000 people. It travels on rails down a suburban road, and the cars travel underneath it. And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour。
如果你想感知未来，如果你想感触未来，看看中国，这是古代的孔子。这是一个火车站这是你以前从未看到过的。它看上去不像是火车站。这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的广州火车站。中国已经比起全球其他国家有更多的铁路网不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。举个例子：现在这是个想法，但这想法不久就会在北京郊区实现。这儿会有一辆超级公交，在公交上层会承载2000人。它会沿着郊区的路上轨道行驶，车辆可以在它下面穿行。它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
Now this is the way things are going to move, because China has a very specific problem, which is different from Europe and different from the United States. China has huge numbers of people and no space. So this is a solution to a situation where China’s going to have many, many, many cities over 20 million people。
现在这个就是未来交通方式，因为中国有非常具体问题，它有别于欧洲和美国。中国人口众多，但很少空间。所以当中国将会有越来越多的城市超过2000万人口时，这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
Okay, so how would I like to finish? Well, what should our attitude be towards this world that we see very rapidly developing before us? I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it. But I want to argue above all, a big picture positive for this world. You know, for 200 years, the world was essentially governed by a fragment of the human population. That’s what Europe and North America represented. The arrival of countries like China and India—between them 38% of the world’s population, and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on, represent the most important single act of democratization in the last 200 years. Civilizations and cultures which had been ignored, which had no voice, which were not listened to, which were not known about, will have a different sort of representation in this world. As humanists, we must welcome, surely, this transformation. And we will have to learn about these civilizations.
好吧，那么我会怎样来做结论呢?那么，我们应该以怎样态度来面对这个呈现在我们面前飞速发展的世界?我认为关于此事，这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。但首先，我想指出这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。200年来，世界基本上是被人类的一部分人所管辖。这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。新兴国家的崛起像中国和印度它们占世界人口的百分之三十八和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等，他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动民主化进程。曾被忽视，没有发言权的文明和文化，人们对此不了解，没听说过的文明和文化，它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地声音代言它们自身。作为人道主义者，我们必定要欢迎这种转型。我们还得学习这些文明。
This big ship here was the one sailed in by Zheng He in the early 15th century on his great voyages around the South China Sea, the East China Sea and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. The little boat in front of it, was the one in which, 80 years later, Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic. Or, look carefully at this silk scroll made by Zhu Zhou in 1368. I think they’re playing golf. Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.Welcome to the future. Thank you!
这儿的大船是在15世纪早期郑和下西洋时航行的船，它穿过中国东海，南海然后穿行印度洋到达东非。这前面的小船是80年后，克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。(笑声)或仔细看看这幅ZhuZhou朱周(音译)在1938年创作的绢轴国画。我认为他们在打高尔夫。上帝啊，竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。欢迎来到未来。
（编辑：薛琳）
